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1.0 Prolog
This web article presents/records the stream of Economic News — usually BAD economic news — that has been
the news diet for many since June 2007 or so ...
The following sampling of news pertain mostly to (and affect) Singapore —
and other parts of Asia as well.
2.0 News
Here are the 'Economic News' ...
SINGAPORE
With the economy looking less shaky over the last six months [circa Q3-2009 &
Q4-2009], there has been a sharp upswing in optimism among employers ....
[...]
Though some analysts remain watchful as to whether the high unemployment rate
in the American and European economies will put a dampener on the nascent
recovery, others say ... companies' burgeoning confidence [reflects] ... the
stability of the recovery.
[...]
Such optimism was not "ephemeral or unjustified", according to
Nanyang Technological University economist Choy Keen Meng.
"It is likely that robust consumption and to a lesser degree, investment, in
Asia and particularly China, is contributing to an increase in final demand,"
he said.
[...]
— Title: "The optimism gets real" Subtitle / Tagline: "Employers' caution giving way to confidence,
as orders grow: Hudson survey" By: Lin Yanqin Newspaper:Today, January 22, 2010
SINGAPORE
In a sure sign that the economic recovery has taken hold here [in Singapore],
the first three months of the year [2010] could see the biggest jump in job
recruitment in more than a decade.
[...]
The surge in hiring is in anticipation of a rebound in customer orders in the
coming months ....
[...]
[But] Ho Geok Choo, chief executive officer of Human Capital Singapore ...
cautioned that there are still "pockets of jobless recovery. Many companies are
just staying tight, preferring to be more cautious. I am not sure whether the
sudden increase in recruitment numbers signifies permanent employment or
employees are put on contract to better weather the economic cycles in some
industries."
[...]
— Title: "Hiring may see biggest jump in a decade" Subtitle / Tagline: "Higher starting pay and bigger bonuses,
also on the cards, Hudson report shows" By: Chuang Peck Ming Newspaper:The Business Times [BT]
, January 22, 2010
SINGAPORE's poorest 20 per cent were hit twice as hard by inflation than better
off households during the first half of the year [2009], new Government figures
show.
[...]
Largely because of rising food and housing prices, the low-income group
experienced inflation at 1.6 per cent in the six months to June [2009],
compared to 0.7 per cent for the middle 60 per cent and 0.9 per cent for the
top 20 per cent of households..
[...]
— Column: "Prime News" Title: "Inflation hits poorest 20% twice as hard" Subtitle / Tagline: "This group was affected most by food and housing prices
in first six months" By: Joyce Teo Newspaper:The Straits Times [ST]
, August 25, 2009
"Economy of Ideas"
(Paul Romer, Stanford Univ)
[SINGAPORE]
Singapore's small population means that it will remain export-reliant, Tony
Tan, deputy chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
(GIC), said in response to a question posed at the Economic Society of
Singapore Annual Dinner last night [Thursday, August 6, 2009].
This means Singapore must increase its exports, Dr Tan said, by seeking new
markets, launching new products and services, and — what he thinks holds
"the brightest potential" — developing an economy of new ideas.
[...]
Discussing ways to raise exports, Dr Tan broached the possibility of developing
Singapore into an "economy of ideas". Producing wholly new innovations would be
very different from the cost-effective production Singapore's economy is
currently based on.
He cited economist Paul Romer of Stanford University, who has suggested that
"the world is moving from an economy of products and services to an economy of
ideas".
[...]
— Column: "Top Stories" Title: "Economy of ideas to raise exports: Tony Tan" Subtitle / Tagline: "S'pore must foster innovation,
R&D and entrepreneurship" By: Teh shi Ning Newspaper:The Business Times (BT), August 7, 2009
[...]
Dr. [Tony] Tan, deputy chairman and executive director of the Government of
Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), said that Singapore ... cannot balance
fewer [lower?] exports with increased domestic demand.
"With just over four million people, domestic consumption can only form a small
part of Singapore's economic growth," he said. "Exports by both multinational
corporations [MNCs] and local firms will therefore remain the major driver for
Singapore's economic growth."
But the old order is under threat. Singapore's traditional key markets of the
United States and Europe are weakened and may remain anaemic for years to come.
Other Asian exporters face similar problems and need to re-orient "from
depending largely on exports to a more balanced model that is dependent as much
on domestic consumption as on export growth", said Dr Tan, who is also chairman
of Singapore Press Holdings.
Nations across Asia have already begun to build up infrastructure and social
safety nets to get their domestic consumers to spend more, although he noted
that the rebalancing process will not be easy.
But Singapore, limited by its size, cannot do the same and must instead improve
its current export model ...
... [In] this improved model ... new markets will be increasingly important.
"Emerging economies are expected to account for more than half of the world's
GDP growth over the next decade," he said. ...
However, he warned that "increasing demand from emerging markets will not
compensate for declining demand in the developed markets".
So Singapore will have to create new products and services, more sophisticated,
and higher in value-added to make its exports stand out to the developed world.
[...]
... most vital, stressed Dr Tan, will be the country's ability to come up with
new ideas, because they lead to the creation of new industries and more
resource-efficient products and services.
Citing notable Stanford economist Paul Romer, Dr Tan said, "The world is moving
from an economy of products and services to an economy of ideas."
[...]
— Column: "Prime News" Title: "Wanted: New ideas, new markets, new products" Subtitle / Tagline: "Singapore can no longer depend on demand
from US and Europe to thrive" By: Robin Chan Newspaper:The Straits Times (ST), August 7, 2009
For a country with nearly 5 million people, there's no running away from
depending on exports for economic growth. But what Singapore sells overseas
should not only be the traditional goods and services — it should also
look into selling the next big thing: Ideas.
Dr Tony Tan, national czar for research, yesterday [Thursday, August 6, 2009]
offered his take on how Singapore's economy can continue thriving in the
post-financial crisis world, where the weakened consumer from developed markets
will not be able to support Asia's largely export-reliant countries.
"In addition to new markets and new products and services, the brightest
potential for increasing our exports could be in the area of new ideas," Dr Tan
said, taking a leaf from the "New Growth Theory" crafted in the 1980s by Mr
Paul Romer, currently senior fellow in the Stanford Institute for Economic
Policy Research.
"Ideas are the result of technological progress intermixed with a sufficient
number of bright creative talent, but working under a consistent framework of
rules, including intellectual property rules, to produce economically valuable
innovations."
[...]
— Column: "Economic Strategy" Title: "S'pore must sell ideas" By: Christie Loh, Deputy Business Editor Newspaper:Today, August 7, 2009
Seagate's decision to lay off 2,000 workers at its hard-disk plant is a stark
reminder to Singaporeans that "we must not be prematurely optimistic" about an
economic recovery, said Manpower Minister Gam Kim Yong yesterday [Wednesday,
August 5, 2009].
[...]
— Part / Section: "B / HOME" Title: "Seagate layoffs 'a reality check for S'poreans'" Subtitle / Tagline: "Challenges still lie ahead despite signs of economic recovery:
Gan Kim Yong" By: Kor Kian Beng Newspaper:The Straits Times (ST), August 6, 2009
[...]
... Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong told reporters: "This Seagate announcement
is also a stark reminder to all of us that the economic challenges are still
there. We must not be prematurely optimistic."
[...]
— Title: "Help for [2,000] laid-off Seagate workers" Newspaper:Today, August 6, 2009
Seeing all the negative reports in newspapers and on television has left me
somewhat depressed. When I take the train, there is hardly a smile to be seen
on the faces of commuters. Many who are working now also fear that they will
lose their jobs should the crisis bite deeper in the next few months.
[...]
Making early plans to snatch that elusive job seems to be the focus of many
Singaporeans now. Job stability and confidence remain very low and some friends
tell me they go to work daily with the fear of being retrenched. Most job
fairs are jam-packed with those who have been retrenched or who are on the
brink, desperate to land any job just to survive.
Some factories, I heard, have no work. Their workers simply sit around idle
all day. How long can the bosses keep their workers in such a state? The
thought of going to work with nothing to do is demoralising.
[...]
— Column: "I Say" [Letters to Editor] Title: "Your Friend, Your Lifeline" Subtitle / Tagline: "Contacts are your best bet for a helping hand after retrenchment" Letter by: Gilbert Goh Newspaper:Today, March 9, 2009
What a difference a year makes. Last May [i.e., May 2008], Asia seemed to be in
an enviable position, with its economies continuing to boom, even as the United
States was becoming mired in recession. At that time, many analysts argued that
this situation would continue, since Asia would "decouple" from the West.
Things turned out quite differently. Instead of decoupling, some of Asia's key
economies, including Japan, are experiencing recessions more severe than those
at the epicenter of the crisis.
[...]
[So, from now on, we should be wary of people who tell you what you want to
hear — especially if they are making $$$money$$$, or
$$$mammon$$$, from YOU, all the while catering to your delusions and helping
you to preen your already humongous ego! Remember: "You cannot serve both God
and Mammon/Money", said Jesus the Christ more than 2,000 years ago; now, that's
a 'smart cookie' of a God! -- Paul Quek]
— Title: "Export model won't be paying some dividend" Subtitle / Tagline: "Increasingly, Asia will have to develop
its own autonomous sources of demand Author:
Kalpana Kochhar Source:The Business Times (BT), May 7, 2009
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the global economic rebound next
year [2010] will be stronger than it forecast in April [2009] as the financial
system stabilises and the pace of contractions from the US to Japan moderates.
The Washington-based lender said in a revised forecast released yesterday [July
8, 2009] that
the world economy will expand 2.5 per cent in 2010, compared with its April
[2009] projection of 1.9 per cent growth.
A contraction this year [2009] will be 1.4 per cent, worse than an April [2009]
forecast for a 1.3 per cent drop, the IMF said.
[...]
— Title: "Global economic recovery will be stronger than first forecast, says IMF" Motherlode / Original Source:BLOOMBERG Source:The New Zealand Herald, July 10, 2009
Anyone searching for clues on when the global economy will get back on its feet
is receiving increasingly negative signals from the stock markets ....
The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) yesterday [March 9, 2009] hit a fresh
six-year low, as it plunged 3.7 per cent to close below 1,500 points for the
first time since July 2003.
As if standing on sinking [quick] sand, the index has been finishing lower and
lower over recent months. It was just last month [February 2009] that the STI
closed under 1,600, a level not seen since September 2003.
AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom said the stock market was typically a
"barometer" of how the real economy will fare in the next six to nine months -
and that may well be the length of time it will take for economic
conditions to improve, he said.
Market sentiment was jittery, no thanks to last Friday's [March 6, 2009's]
worse-than-expected data on the United States jobless. In Singapore, many
companies reported disappointing fourth-quarter [Q4] earning results, analysts
said.
"A host of data from the US suggest that the global economy is still very weak.
If you look at the US unemployment figures - shockingly high," said Bank Julius
Baer analyst Nicole Sze.
[...]
The trading scene could get bloodier in coming months. The next support level
to be breached may be at 1,200 points, according to several analysts including
Ms Sze and CIMB-GK Research economist Song Seng Wun.
[...]
— Column: "STI Plunges 3.7%" Title: "Back to July 2003 levels" (Adapted slightly) Subtitle / Tagline: "Next support level to be breached could be it 1,200 points, say analysts" Article by: Esther Fung Newspaper:Today, March 10, 2009
[...]
Markets are getting ahead of themselves in betting that the worst global
recession since World War II is over. ...
Analysts are pinning their hopes on stimulus packages, such as China's four
trillion yuan (S$866.7 billion) ... We have seen too many false bottoms in the
last year [2008] to trust markets.
— Title: "Summers, Geithner silenced as IMF loses grip" Quote: "Will having a pile of money to tap, with few conditions, encourage
bad behaviour? Asian governments need to enforce
a clear set of guidelines and surveillance
practices" Author:
William Pesek Jr Source:The Business Times, May 7, 2009
Bourses across Asia fell sharply yesterday, as investors received a rude
wake-up call in the form of poor United States retail sales data for last month
[April 2009].
[...]
— Page: "Money Markets" Column: "Bulls and Bears" Title: "Weak US retail data spooks Asian markets" Sub-title / Tagline: "Sharp price falls stun traders
who expected the rally to last longer" Author:
Goh Eng Yeow Source:The Straits Times (ST), May 15, 2009
[...]
Some green shoots may have appeared in the [Singapore] economy but we are not out of the woods.
...
[...]
— Column: "Employment Guidelines" Title: "Slow recovery prompts review" Author:
Pearl Forss Source:Today, May 18, 2009
... psychological lift ... [arising from] happy talk about "green shoots" has given the equity and other asset markets [a recent lift] ....
[...]
... The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said yesterday [Thursday, May 21,
2009] the worst was probably over, but added it was too early to say if
Singapore has begun to rebound. "There are green shoots, no doubt, but there are also some brown weeds," said MTI Second Permanent Secretary Ravi Menon.
[...]
THE GREEN SHOOTS
[...]
The net job loss in the first quarter [Q1 2009] was 1,000, according to the
MTI's latest economic survey, which noted that the resident umemployment rate
in the first quarter was 4.8 per cent, below the peak in previous recessions.
Other "green shoots" include improved business expectations for companies in
the manufacturing and service sectors [but surely not in the travel-tourist
sector???] compared to three months ago, said the MTI.
[...]
The MTI added that there have been "no new major" systemic risk to the world
economy apart from the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak since its last revision.
THE BROWN WEEDS
But some experts have cautioned against excessive optimism over "green shoots".
Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said the recent stock market rally was
not warranted.
"The market has gone ahead of itself. We are mindful that the worst is possibly
behind us, but the recovery process is going to be slow and sluggish," he said.
OCBC economist Selena Ling said: "What we have now is a disconnect between
financial and equity markets that want to believe in green shoots. But some of the hard data, like United States retail sales, still suggest the
economy is more in the 'brown weeds' territory."
Meanwhile, major economies such as Japan and the Eurozone appear to remain
weak. However, mixed signals are also an indicator of a trough, said Forecast
Singapore economist Vishnu Varathan.
"They usually precede a recovery, but they don't give any indication of when it
will come and in what shape it will be," he said.
Sidebar: CONFIDENCE DOWN
Consumer confidence here had plunged to a record low in the past six months
[November 2008 - April 2009].
It fell 12 index points from 92 to 80, Singapore's third consecutive decline
from its all-time high of 114 recorded in late 2007, according to the Nielsen
Global Consumer Confidence Index, which tracks consumer confidence, major
concerns and spending habits among 25,420 Internet users in 50 countries.
The survey also showed that Singaporeans are now second among global consumers,
after the Arabs, who are most concerned about their job security, rather than
the economy — some 49 per cent compared with just 26 per cent six months
ago.
— Title: "Singapore's GDP: Green shoots or brown weeds?" Author:
Esther Fung Source:Today, May 22, 2009
Recovery? What Recovery?
Don't tell me that the economy is getting better, or has even hit rock bottom.
My faith in an imminent recovery deserted me on May 5 [2009], when one of our
customers, Salyer American Foods, based in Monterey, Calif., suddenly fell into
receivership. There had been little to no indication that the company was so
close to financial ruin. As it turns out, the company's lenders say Salyer owes
them over $34 million, a debt equal to almost half its sales. A company
attorney told local media that tight credit markets and the economic recession
had pushed Salyer over the edge. If the receiver doesn't find some way to
revive the company's fortunes, our bag manufacturing company stands to lose
nearly $1.5 million in revenue, about 2 percent of our $60 million in sales.
On the same day my customer fell into receivership [May 5, 2009], Fed chairman
Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee that he believed the economy was in
the process of bottoming out and "would turn up later this year". He's not
alone in his optimism. Over the past two weeks or so, it has become a cottage
industry among economists and the media to spot the first "green shoots" of a recovery. Certainly [green] shoots there may be. The stock market has rebounded smartly over the past two months,
as has consumer confidence. Pending home sales have ticked up, while
unemployment claims are easing. And many economists insist a manufacturing
revival is in the wings because inventories have fallen so low that restocking
must begin soon.
But I haven't found many small-business owners ready to jump on the recovery
bandwagon, and for good reason. We're still experiencing the "bottoming out"
phase and worry that another bottom remains below this one. Call us pessimists,
but we're not sure the green shoots aren't just [brown] weeds.
[...]
— Title: "Recovery? What Recovery?" Subtitle / Tagline: "Why entrepreneurs aren't so optimistic about the economy." Author:
Kevin Kelly Source:Newsweek, May 7, 2009
www.newsweek.com/id/196007
[BRUSSELS]
Antwerp port, Europe's second biggest, will see a recovery in cargo volumes at
the beginning of 2010 at the earliest, its chief executive said on Wednesday
[July 8, 2009].
"I cannot really see any signs that the slowdown is bottoming out. I would not
expect a recovery before 2010," chief executive Eddy Bruyninckx told Reuters in
an interview.
[...]
— Title: "Antwerp port sees no recovery before 2010: CEO" Motherlode / Original Source:Reuters Source:The Business Times (BT), July 10, 2009
Singapore Stock prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since 2003. On the property
front, asset writedowns and land bank provisions have begun. The job market is
facing its worse crisis in years. And the global financial market and system
remain in meltdown mode.
[...]
It is generally recognized that movement in asset prices is symptomatic of the
prevailing economic condition. But it would be quite a stretch to conclude that
the new-found resilience in club membership prices is indicative of a
potential bottoming out in the underlying economic fundamentals and financial
markets.
Rather, as some membership brokers suggest, what we could now be seeing is the
eye of the hurricane. That eerily quiet and calm moment before the second wave
hits.
The first wave came when the people got their pink slips between October
and December last year. Many were from the financial sector, and a significant
number were expatriates who were forced to return home.
... looking ahead, the indicators are that the economic and financial
circumstances can only get worse before getting better. ...
[...]
... Property prices, which have been relatively resilient so far, could soon
collapse, according to many analysts.
In short, the ''other shoe" could drop anytime in the coming months. ...
— Title: "Prices of golf club membership holding steady - for now" Article by: Ven Sreenivasan Newspaper: BT Weekend, Sat/Sun, March 7-8, 2009
There exist a few parallel leading indicators in the Singapore residential
market. Both the stock index and level of unsold inventory are found to precede
all major turning points in residential prices.
... the stock index is a key leading indicator of the Hong Kong and Singapore
office market rental trends. ... changes in office vacancy direction will
precede all major turning points in these two markets.
[...]
Similar to the office market, the Straits Times Index (STI) is also a key
leading indicator of the Urban Renewal Authority's (URA) Non-landed Residential
Price Index trend.
The STI [had been] observed [to] lead the URA Non-landed Residential Price
Index by one to four quarters since 1993. ...
[...]
... Our [DTZ Asia Forecasting] assessment indicates that the probability of a full
recovery by end of this year remains low.
... Singapore residential market has a higher chance of bottoming by the middle
of next year and stage a gradual recovery from there onwards.
Both the Hong Kong and Singapore office markets had a lower probability of
recovering by the end of next year compared with the residential markets.
— Column: "DTZ Research Forecast" Title: "Full recovery remains low" Subtitle / Tagline: "Home market has just a 5.8% probability of recovering
by end-Dec [2009]" Source:Today, April 23, 2009
[...]
... The investment agency [Temasek Holdings] had actually bought an initial
US$5-billion ([S]$7.4-billion) stake in investment banking giant Merrill Lynch
in Dec 2007 and added another US$1 billion last July [July 2008] to become
Merrill's single largest shareholder with a 13.7 per cent stake. Following the
purchase of Merrill by BofA, Temasek's stake was converted into 189 million
shares of BofA or a 3 per cent stake.
Obviously, Temasek didn't think much of the long term future of BofA and hence
its disposal of those shares at a whopping loss of between US$2.8 billion and
US$4.7 billion, depending on when the BofA shares were sold. BofA shares traded
between US$2.53 and US$14.81 in the first quarter of this year [Q1 2009].
[...]
— Column: "Monday Blues" Title: "WHAT HAPPENED TO YOUR 'LONG-TERM' VIEW" Author:
Conrad Raj Subtitle / Tagline: Temasek ought to clear the air on sale of BofA stake
and investment in ABC Learning Source:Today, May 18, 2009
3.0 Epilog
This web article, for the time being, comprises some Economic News ...
Please do not assume or conclude that, just because I present many views (in
the form of textual notes and video clips) on this website, it means that I am
in agreement with or that I believe in the views offered-proferred ... That
would be displaying such a parochial and provincial attitude, towards this
website and towards me as well!
As an ex-military officer, I assure you that I am in the habit of reading,
viewing and digesting lots of stuff that I don't necessarily believe in ... We
call all the stuff we read, view and digest, 'military intelligence' ... The
same applies with 'business intelligence' in the business world, of course.
Our aim, as usual, is to find out what others (including our friends, enemies,
competitors, suppliers, strategic partners, business partners, etc.) believe in
... In order to do that effectively, we have to 'get out of the way', so to
speak ... we have to remove our humongous ego! ... else we will never ever
really have gotten started in our journey of exploration and discovery of the
Mysteries of the World
.
Here is a sentiment that I am wholeheartedly in agreement with ...
As I sit down to redo this book for an American audience, what rises before me
is last night's dream: I'm in a broad and beautiful land among many trees. It's
night. I look up at a huge old tree that's dark against the starry sky in its
detail of twig and branch. There is room enough here for all of us, I realize,
here in this big, intricately textured park. But I see that some want to cut
down the trees and level it out, so huge throngs of people can gather to gaze
up at the sun's glare. I watch dark twigs fingering the remote, untouchable
stars. A voice speaks: "Don't turn this into a Copernican Garden."
Waking up, I remember that I went to sleep wondering how to put this book
together. And I take "Copernican Garden" to mean a parking lot vista where
masses gather to honor the bright sun of traditional science with its old rules
as the center of the universe.
So I will not cut down the trees and level this book out. It is between you and
me [or you and I], a conversation as we stroll along in a moonlit fractal
garden past webby connections of thought that merge to patterned insight. Here
hidden delights nestle in scaling patterns of self-similar but never quite
repeating beauty. Here the tree of life hold stars in its branches. No matter
how huge, this garden stays human-sized because we have a place in it, you and
I. No need to cut down the connective forest and level things out for that
bright Sol [sun] of left-brain logic whose daytime dazzle — so
close and glaring — can blind us to the myriad constellations
beyond.
[...]
— Katya Walter,
Tao of Chaos
Sub-title:
Merging East and West
(1994, 1996)
Here is an observation (adapted) made in the Acknowledgement page of a book ...
It takes many minds to produce a book [including an e-book, of course].
Although most authors [especially of non-fiction books and articles] would
prefer not to admit this fact, fundamentally they are merely 'synthesisers' of
accumulated knowledge.
The process of synthesising may unveil a new reality map, or paradigm, which,
in due course, will be used by future pioneers to unveil further paradigms.
This principle was summed up by Sir Isaac Newton when he remarked: "If I have
seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants".
[...]
— Christian von Nidda,
Our Secret Planet
(2005)
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As stated in our
Mysteries Blog
, the 'Mysteries of the World' Website does NOT aim to sensationalize any
particular 'Mystery', although we will examine and explore all possible
viewpoints pertaining to each 'Mystery' — including the fringe
AND the mainstream.
We will, of course, come to a conclusion (eventually!) about each 'Mystery' ...
even if that conclusion may eventually turn out to be 'as yet unresolved' or
'unexplained to our satisfaction'.
